According to The Kobeissi Letter, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell by 1.6 points to 95.8 in April 2025, marking its lowest level since October 2024 (source: Twitter, @KobeissiLetter, May 15, 2025). Six out of ten index components declined, with business condition expectations showing the steepest drop. For traders, this signals growing economic uncertainty among small businesses, which historically correlates with increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Market participants should monitor risk sentiment closely, as pessimism in the small business sector can spill over into crypto asset pricing, particularly affecting Bitcoin and altcoin volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, April 2025 US PPI inflation dropped to 2.4%, beating expectations of 2.5%, while core PPI fell to 3.1%, matching forecasts. However, March PPI data was revised higher, with headline PPI moving from 3.3% to 4.0% and core PPI up to 3.4% (source: @KobeissiLetter, 2025-05-15). For cryptocurrency traders, these mixed inflation signals create uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate path, likely leading to short-term volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices as investors reassess risk exposure and potential liquidity trends in the broader market.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index experienced a significant decline of 19.5 points in April 2025, reaching -35.8, which marks its lowest level since the 2020 pandemic. This result fell sharply below market expectations of -14.2 points, signaling deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector. New orders also dropped 19.9 points to -20.0, the weakest reading since November 2022, while companies’ outlook declined by 17.6 points. Such negative data increases the likelihood of risk-off sentiment in financial and crypto markets, as traders may anticipate potential spillover effects on broader economic performance and liquidity conditions (source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, May 1, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index dropped sharply by 19.5 points in April 2025 to -35.8, marking its lowest level since the 2020 pandemic and far below the expected -14.2 points. New orders also saw a steep decline, falling 19.9 points to -20.0, the lowest since November 2022, while companies’ outlook dropped 17.6 points. These unexpectedly weak economic signals may trigger risk-off sentiment among traders, potentially increasing volatility in both equity and cryptocurrency markets as investors reassess growth prospects and seek safe-haven assets (source: The Kobeissi Letter via Twitter, May 1, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumer expectations about the economy have dropped to crisis levels, with consumer confidence plunging 8 points to 86 in April—the lowest since May 2020 and marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline. This broad-based fall across all age groups signals potential headwinds for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and equities. Historically, such sharp drops in consumer sentiment often lead to increased market volatility and risk-off sentiment, which traders should closely monitor for potential short-term price corrections or heightened trading opportunities across major crypto assets (source: The Kobeissi Letter, April 30, 2025).